larva -- several millimetres -- within wet moss and algaea grub about the size of a grain of rice, in wet moss

A field note from wet moss at the bottom of the world

The fly that lets winter in

Belgica antarctica is a true fly with wings reduced to stubs. Its larvae spend much of the Antarctic year frozen inside wet coastal moss -- then thaw and carry on.Belgica antarctica is a fly whose wings are too small to fly with. Its young spend most of the Antarctic year frozen solid inside wet moss -- then thaw out and carry on.

the surrender

It doesn't fight the Antarctic winter. It surrenders to it -- freezes solid and thaws out fine -- and drying is just how it rehearses.It doesn't fight the Antarctic winter. It gives in to it -- freezes solid, thaws out, and is fine.

Two cold strategies

What happens when the ice begins

Stay liquid

unfrozen 0 C ice begins

Freeze avoidance is one way of staying liquid: hold your body water below 0 C without letting it turn to ice. Water can do this. Chilled gently enough, it drops past its freezing point and stays liquid anyway, a state called supercooling. The temperature where ice finally takes hold is the supercooling point. It marks where ice begins, not where the animal dies.Freeze avoidance means keeping the water inside you runny. You hold it below 0 C -- the temperature where water normally turns to ice -- without letting it actually freeze. Water really can do this. Cool it gently enough and it slips past its freezing point and stays liquid anyway. That is called supercooling. The temperature where ice finally wins is the supercooling point. That is where ice starts, not where the animal dies.

Freeze, then return

extracellular iceice between cells cells remain distinct

Freeze tolerance takes the other bet: let the ice come, but keep it out of the cells. Extracellular ice fills the spaces between cells while the cells themselves stay whole, and the animal survives being solid. This is the Antarctic midge's winter route.Freeze tolerance is the opposite bet: let the ice in, but keep it out of your cells. Your body is built from millions of tiny cells with little gaps between them. The ice fills the gaps and leaves the cells alone. The animal goes hard as a rock -- and lives. This is the road the Antarctic midge takes.

One route spends the winter holding ice off. The other lets it in and goes on living. This larva takes the second route, and for it, being frozen is not a crisis but a plain way to pass the year. The harder question is what the water around it lets happen next.One animal spends all winter keeping ice out. The other lets ice in and keeps on living. This little grub picks the second one. For it, being frozen is not an emergency -- it is just how you get through the year. The harder question is what the water around it does next.

One life, drawn to scale

Almost all of it is winter

The bar below runs left to right through the common two-year pattern, at the time spans stated on this page. Nothing in it has been made bigger to be easy to see, which is the point: look for the adult, and you will nearly miss it.The bar below shows two whole years, drawn to size. Nothing in it has been made bigger to be easier to spot -- and that is the point. Try to find the grown-up fly. You will almost miss it.

Active in wet moss Larvae move and feed when substrate temperatures rise above freezing. One such period runs ahead of each winter.When the moss warms up above freezing, the grubs crawl about and eat. This happens once before each winter.
Frozen Roughly seven to eight months continuously frozen in the Torgersen Island logger record, generally near -1 to -3 C.About seven or eight months frozen without a break. A thermometer left in the moss on Torgersen Island measured it: mostly around -1 to -3 C.
Adult -- 7 to 14 days It walks, mates, lays eggs, and does not feed. The whole adult life is the amber sliver at the right edge.It walks about, finds a mate, lays eggs, and never eats a single thing. Its entire grown-up life is that thin orange sliver on the right.

A two-year cycle is common, not universal, and individuals vary. These proportions follow the durations given in the chapters below; they are not a measurement of one animal.Two years is the usual plan, but not the only one, and every midge is a bit different. These lengths come from the numbers further down the page. This is not a picture of one real animal.

the speck 01

A true fly at the far end of the map

Go as far south as land goes and the insects very nearly run out. In maritime Antarctica, in mats of wet moss near the shore, there is a wrinkled grub several millimetres long. Belgica antarctica is a non-biting midge, a true fly in the order Diptera, and its larva does nearly all the living on this page.Head as far south as there is land, and insects almost run out. But in clumps of wet moss near the shore in Antarctica there is a wrinkled little grub, about as long as a grain of rice. Its name is Belgica antarctica. It is a midge -- a kind of small fly -- and it does not bite. Almost everything on this page happens while it is still a grub. Scientists call that stage a larva.

It is the southernmost recorded free-living insect, and the only free-living insect endemic to maritime Antarctica. Both words are doing work. Free-living means it makes its own way rather than riding on a host, and parasitic lice and fleas can occur farther south than it does. Endemic means it lives here and nowhere else, which rules in this midge but not Parochlus steinenii, a midge native to the same region but not only there.It holds two records. It is the furthest-south insect that lives on its own, and it is the only insect that lives on its own in this part of Antarctica and nowhere else on Earth. Both of those careful bits matter. On its own means it looks after itself instead of hitching a ride on another animal -- lice and fleas do get further south, but only stuck to a host. Nowhere else rules out a neighbour, Parochlus steinenii, another midge that lives here but lives in other places too.

It is a fly that, in practice, does not fly. The adult's wings are reduced to stubs. It is also missing the halteres that other flies use as gyroscopes to stay balanced in the air. It walks across wet ground instead of taking to the air. The larvae live in wet coastal moss, algae, and rotting organic matter, often 10 to 20 m from the shore.It is a fly that cannot really fly. The grown-up's wings are shrunk down to little stubs, and it is also missing the tiny built-in balancers other flies use to stay steady in the air. So it walks. The grubs live in wet moss, algae, and rotting plants, usually about 10 to 20 metres back from the sea.

On Cormorant Island in January 2018, one good plot held a measured maximum of 38,850 larvae per square metre. Lay a sheet of A4 paper on moss that crowded and you are covering roughly 2,400 of them. The number belongs to the plot that was sampled, not to all patches of moss. It still changes what you picture: the single wrinkled larva under a moss stem is one of a crowd living beneath your boots.On Cormorant Island in January 2018, scientists counted one patch of moss with 38,850 grubs in a single square metre. Put a sheet of paper down on moss that crowded and you would be covering about 2,400 of them. That was the busiest patch they measured, not every patch. Still, it changes the picture in your head: that one wrinkled grub under a moss stem has thousands of neighbours right under your boots.

One square metre of wet moss and an enlarged larva A square quadrat of wet coastal moss: a cushion of moss over dark substrate, with many small larval marks scattered through it. One mark is circled, and a hairline leader carries it to a large, segmented, grub-like larva with a darker head capsule. Labels give one measured plot in January 2018 at a maximum of 38,850 larvae per square metre, and state that the number belongs to that plot and not to every patch of moss. one square metre of wet moss one larva, enlarged several millimetres long wet moss and algae, near shore maximum 38,850 larvae / m2 one measured plot, January 2018 -- not every patch of moss
Wet coastal substrate -- one sampled maximum, January 2018Wet ground near the shore -- the busiest patch, January 2018

Sources: Jacobs (1900); Michailova et al. (2021); Perez (2012); Peckham (1971); Usher and Edwards (1984); Potts et al. (2020; senior author Nick Teets), doi:10.1007/s00442-020-04714-9.

the calendar 02

Two summers, two winters, a few days as an adult

Most of its life is spent as a larva, and much of that is spent frozen. A two-year cycle is common, though not the only one. Like other insects, the larva grows in stages called instars, each one ending in a moult; this midge passes through four of them. In the common pattern it meets its first winter around the second instar and its second winter as a fourth-instar larva. The back half of that fourth instar, labelled L4-2, enters obligate diapause: a set pause in its development the larva cannot skip, even if conditions turn mild.It spends nearly its whole life as a grub, and much of that frozen. Two years is the usual plan. Like other insects, it grows in steps, wriggling out of its old skin at the end of each one. Scientists call each step an instar, and this midge goes through four. So it usually meets its first winter in step two, and its second winter in step four. Halfway through step four it switches on a built-in pause button called diapause. It cannot skip that pause, even if the weather turns nice.

Even the good season is cold. Southern summer arrives while the northern half of the world is in winter. Across five sites watched from mid-December into late March, the moss and soil averaged 3.0 to 5.6 C. That is the summer figure, not a winter one, and it covers the midge's best months. When the moss and soil rise above freezing, the larvae move and feed.Even the good season is cold. Summer down there happens while the top half of the world is having winter. Scientists watched five spots from mid-December to late March, and the moss and soil averaged only 3 to 5.6 C -- about the temperature inside a fridge. And that is the warm half of the year. Whenever the moss climbs above freezing, the grubs get moving and start eating.

Then, in the common pattern, the adults come out together, all at once. They walk, they mate, they lay eggs in a blob of jelly, and they never eat. An adult lives roughly 7 to 14 days. Two winters of getting ready, spent in a week or two, and nearly the whole life story belongs instead to the larva and to the wet ground around it.Then, usually, the adults all appear at once, together. They walk, they find a mate, they lay their eggs in a blob of jelly, and they never eat -- not once. A grown-up lives about 7 to 14 days. Two whole winters of getting ready, spent in a week or two. Nearly the entire story belongs to the grub instead, and to the wet ground it lives in.

The common two-year life calendar Five plates stacked top to bottom, joined by arrows. A green summer plate holds two small larvae in moss; a pale blue frozen plate holds one larva under an icy crust; a second green summer plate holds two larger larvae; a second frozen plate holds a fourth-instar larva; an amber plate holds a walking adult. Labels beside the plates name the four instars, the L4-2 obligate diapause, and an adult life of roughly seven to fourteen days, under a note that the two-year cycle is common but not universal. two-year cycle -- common, not universal summer 01 instars 1 and 2 of foursteps 1 and 2 of four winter 01 enters around the second instarstarts around growth step 2 summer 02 instar 3, then instar 4step 3, then step 4 winter 02 instar 4 -- L4-2 has obligate diapausestep 4 -- second half is a set pause adult -- roughly 7 to 14 days emerges synchronously, does not feed walks, mates, lays eggs
The adult arc is brief; both broad blue arcs are larval wintersThe grown-up arc is tiny; both wide blue arcs are winters as a grub

Sources: Sugg, Edwards, and Baust (1983), doi:10.1111/j.1365-2311.1983.tb00487.x; Finch et al. (2020), doi:10.1038/s41598-020-76139-6; Spacht et al. (2021; senior author Nick Teets), doi:10.1007/s00442-021-05035-1; Yoshida et al. (2025; co-author Nick Teets), doi:10.1038/s41598-025-86617-4.

the surrender 03

It turns to ice and lives

The larva freezes solid, and then it is fine. It is freeze-tolerant in summer and in winter alike, not only in some prepared season. Ice forms in the extracellular spaces, the gaps around and between its cells, while the cells themselves stay whole. When the thaw comes, liquid water returns to the moss and movement returns to the larva, and it carries on from where it stopped.The grub freezes rock solid, and then it is fine. It can do this in summer just as well as in winter -- it does not need to get ready first. Ice forms in the little gaps around and between its cells, and the cells themselves stay whole. When the thaw comes, the water in the moss goes runny again, the grub starts moving again, and it carries straight on from where it stopped.

It is not a brief freeze either. A temperature logger buried in occupied moss on Torgersen Island recorded one winter from mid-to-late April through mid-November. The ground stayed frozen without a break for roughly seven to eight months, mostly sitting near -1 to -3 C. A larva in that moss would have spent the better part of a year frozen solid.And it is not a quick freeze. Scientists buried a thermometer in moss where these grubs actually live, on Torgersen Island. It stayed frozen without a single break from around late April to mid-November -- seven to eight months -- mostly sitting at about -1 to -3 C. A grub in that moss spent most of a year as a solid lump.

A second record, taken 1 cm down, found 0 to -2 C for more than 300 days, with -7 C reached on only two occasions. Dull, in other words, and nowhere near as savage as the word Antarctica suggests. The wet moss is what buffers it. These two records come from different places and are not readings of the same winter, but together they show what a larva's winter can be: long, frozen, and buffered.A second thermometer, 1 cm down, recorded 0 to -2 C for more than 300 days, and only dropped to -7 C twice. That is boring, and far less brutal than the word "Antarctica" makes you expect. The wet moss works like a blanket. These two thermometers were in different places and not in the same winter, so they are not one measurement -- but together they show what a grub's winter is like: long, frozen, and gentler than you would guess.

Cells before freezing, surrounded by extracellular ice, and after thaw Three framed panels hold the same four outlined cells. In the first, liquid water runs through the network of spaces around and between them. In the second, that same network has frozen: the channels are drawn as jagged crystal, crossed by straight grain boundaries, and the ice appears only outside the cells, whose outlines stay unbroken. In the third, after thaw, the channels carry liquid water again and the cells are unchanged. 01 liquid 02 ice forms 03 thaw extracellular ice -- in the spaces around the cellsice in the gaps around the cells
The cells remain distinct; the diagram makes no claim about intracellular iceThe cells stay whole; this drawing says nothing about ice inside them

Sources: Baust and Lee (1981); Elnitsky et al. (2008), doi:10.1242/jeb.011874; Lee et al. (2006), doi:10.1242/jeb.02001; Kawarasaki et al. (2014; co-author Nick Teets), doi:10.1111/1365-2435.12229.

the rehearsal 04

Dry first, survive the freeze

Drying a larva out under controlled conditions can leave it better at surviving a freeze later, which is a strange thing for drought to do for you. In one test, larvae collected in summer spent 48 hours at 98.2 percent relative humidity and +4 C. That is damp air by any normal standard. It still pulled water out of them slowly: they lost about 30 percent of their osmotically active water, the part free to move in and out rather than bound up inside the tissue.Here is the odd bit. If you dry a grub out first, it gets better at surviving a freeze afterwards. Drying out should not help you cope with ice -- but it does. In one test, grubs collected in summer sat for 48 hours in air at 98.2 percent humidity and +4 C. That is very damp air, like a bathroom after a hot shower. Even so, it slowly pulled water out of them. They lost about 30 percent of the water that can move freely in and out of their bodies.

Then came the cold. All of the slowly dried larvae survived three days at -10 C. Of the larvae that had not been dried, fewer than one in ten survived even two days at -10 C -- a shorter test, and still far worse results. The obvious answer is wrong, too. Drying left the supercooling point near -9 C in both groups, so the dried larvae were not holding ice off any better than the others. The protection did not come from holding ice off. What did produce it, the study did not establish.Then came the cold. Every single slowly-dried grub survived three days at -10 C. Of the grubs that had not been dried, fewer than one in ten survived even two days -- a shorter test, and they still did far worse. And the obvious explanation turns out to be wrong. In both groups ice still started at about -9 C, so the dried grubs were not keeping ice away any better than the others. Something else was protecting them. The scientists could not work out what.

Three different things in this chapter all involve losing water, and they are worth keeping apart. Plain desiccation is simply drying out. Prior drying is the rehearsal above, where losing water first leaves a larva better able to survive a freeze later. Cryoprotective dehydration is the third and the strangest: a cold larva sitting near ice loses water to that ice, bit by bit, and by giving up the water it never freezes at all. Only that last one is offered as a whole-winter route, and it is the one this page ends by questioning.Three different things in this chapter involve losing water, and they are worth keeping straight. Drying out is just drying out. Drying out first is the practice run above, where losing water helps you survive a freeze later. The third is the strangest: giving your water away to ice. A cold grub sitting near ice slowly leaks its water into that ice, and because it has handed the water over, it never freezes at all. Only that third one is offered as a plan for a whole winter -- and it is the one this page ends up doubting.

Slow drying before a later freeze Two time bars share one freeze-onset line. The upper bar, slowly dried first, runs 48 hours at 98.2 percent relative humidity and plus 4 C with about 30 percent of active water lost, then three days at minus 10 C, and all of those larvae survived. The lower undried bar has no drying step and its freeze ends after two days, where fewer than one in ten survived. A closing note records that the supercooling point remained about minus 9 C in both groups. slowly dried first 48 h -- 98.2% RH -- +4 C 3 days at -10 C about 30% active water lost all survived undried comparison fewer than 1 in 10 survived even 2 days at -10 C supercooling point remained about -9 C in both groupsice still began at about -9 C in both groups
Cross-protection after prior drying -- not a change in where ice beginsDrying first helps later -- it does not change where ice begins

Sources: Hayward et al. (2007), doi:10.1242/jeb.02714; Elnitsky et al. (2009), doi:10.1242/jeb.034173; Baust and Lee (1987), doi:10.1016/0011-2240(87)90016-2.

the machinery 05

The genome is spare. The alarm is not.A tiny instruction book. An alarm that never stops.

When Kelley's team sequenced this midge, they found a haploid genome of about 99 Mb, roughly 99 million letters of DNA. For an insect that is very small. What it was missing is the interesting part: hardly any repeating stretches, few of the parasitic sequences that copy or move themselves around a genome, called transposable elements, and unusually short introns, the non-coding gaps that sit inside genes. Their 2014 paper described it as the smallest sequenced insect genome reported in 2014.Every living thing carries an instruction book written in DNA. When Kelley's team read this midge's book, it turned out to be only about 99 million letters long. For an insect, that is tiny. What was missing is the interesting part. Most animals' instruction books are stuffed with repeated bits, with freeloading passages that copy and paste themselves all over the place, and with long gaps sitting inside the useful parts. This midge had hardly any of that. In 2014 their paper called it the smallest insect instruction book anyone had read so far.

That record has since fallen. A 72.1 Mb assembly for Xenos peckii, a twisted-wing parasite, was published in 2024. It is tempting to link the tidy genome to the hard life, and that temptation should be resisted. A stripped-down genome and freeze tolerance turn up in the same insect here, but nothing in the work shows that one produced the other.That record has since been beaten. In 2024 a twisted-wing parasite called Xenos peckii came in smaller still. And it is very tempting to say the midge has a short, tidy instruction book because its life is so hard. Do not. Both things are true of this insect, but nobody has shown that one caused the other.

The way the larva handles stress is spare in its own way. Heat-shock proteins are a cell's repair kit for trouble, normally ramped up sharply when something goes wrong. In the larvae Rinehart's team tested, hsp70, hsp90, and a small heat-shock protein were being made all the time. The alarm was already sounding, and the heat and cold shocks they tried did not make it louder. That was true of the larvae in those particular tests; the adults did not behave the same way.The way it handles trouble is stripped-down too. Cells carry a repair kit -- proteins that most animals switch on hard the moment something goes wrong. In the grubs Rinehart's team tested, three of those repair proteins were being made all the time. The alarm was already ringing. Heating the grubs up or chilling them down did not make it ring any louder. That was what happened to grubs in those particular tests. The grown-ups did not behave the same way.

A compact gene strip above three baseline heat-shock indicators Observation one, upper half: an extent bracket labelled approximately 99 Mb as reported in 2014 spans a gene strip of six long coding blocks separated by very short intron gaps, annotated unusually short introns and little repetitive and transposable-element DNA. A horizontal rule marked no causal arrow divides the figure. Observation two, lower half: hsp70, hsp90 and a small heat-shock protein, each drawn as a fully lit indicator bar reading on, at larval baseline under the tested conditions. approximately 99 Mb -- reported in 2014about 99 million letters -- in 2014 observation 01 unusually short introns little repetitive and transposable-element DNA no causal arrowno cause proven larval baseline under tested conditions observation 02 hsp70 on hsp90 on small HSP on
Two observations, no causal arrow between themTwo things that are both true -- neither one causes the other

Sources: Kelley et al. (2014; co-author Nick Teets), doi:10.1038/ncomms5611; Castano, Ye, and Uy (2024), doi:10.1038/s41597-024-03808-w; Rinehart et al. (2006), doi:10.1073/pnas.0606840103.

the twist 06

The winter trick it may hardly use

Cryoprotective dehydration is real, and this midge can do it. In the founding laboratory experiment, fourth-instar larvae held near a physically separate piece of ice gave up their water to it, never froze, and lived. The same paper found something that muddies the story: in wetter soil, ice touching a larva simply seeded ice inside it, a process called inoculative freezing.Giving your water away to ice is a real thing, and this midge really can do it. In the first lab experiment, grubs were put near a lump of ice they were not touching. They slowly handed their water over to it, never froze, and lived. But the same paper found something awkward: in wetter soil, ice touching a grub simply started ice off inside the grub.

So which route is even available turns on moisture. In the wet moss where these larvae really do spend the winter, ice presses against the larva from all sides and seeds freezing directly, leaving little room for the dehydration route. Dry conditions with the ice held physically apart, of the kind a laboratory can arrange, leave that route open. Nobody has published a moisture line where one takes over from the other -- there is no published universal cutoff -- and rather than invent one, the laboratory below refuses to answer in the middle.So which route is even possible comes down to how wet it is. In the soggy moss where these grubs really do spend the winter, ice presses in from every side and starts them freezing straight away, leaving little room for the drying-out route. Dry conditions with the ice kept apart -- the sort of thing you can set up in a lab -- leave that route open. Nobody has ever published the exact wetness where one takes over from the other. So rather than make a number up, the machine below refuses to answer in the middle.

Someone finally ran the two side by side. Yoshida's team took second-year diapausing fourth-instar larvae, 55 per treatment, and held them at -5 C for six months: one group frozen, one group cryoprotectively dehydrated. The frozen larvae won, and not by a little. Of the frozen group, 41.8 percent were alive at six months and 23.6 percent went on to become adults during the following 50-day scoring window. Of the dehydrated group, 9.1 percent were alive, and not one of them became an adult.Finally, someone tested the two side by side. Yoshida's team took 55 grubs for each route -- all of them second-year grubs on their built-in pause -- and kept them at -5 C for six months. One group was frozen. The other was dried out next to ice. The frozen ones won, and not by a little. Of the frozen group, 41.8 percent were still alive after six months, and 23.6 percent went on to become grown-up flies. Of the dried-out group, 9.1 percent were alive -- and not one ever became an adult.

Read those numbers carefully before spending them. The treatments were held at one constant temperature, and the dehydrated one was severe. The two groups were also cooled in different ways, and becoming an adult depends on breaking diapause as well as on surviving. So these are not field survival rates, and they are not a verdict on all ways of drying a larva out. What they do rule out is the tidy story -- that the clever move is to dry out so that nothing can freeze. Given six months of it, the larvae that surrendered to the ice were the ones still alive at the end.Now read those numbers carefully before you spend them. All of this happened in a lab, held at one steady temperature, and the drying was harsh. The two groups were also cooled in different ways. And becoming an adult needs the grub to wake up from its pause, not just to stay alive. So these are not the numbers for real grubs out on real ice, and they do not settle every way of drying a grub out. What they do knock down is the neat story -- the idea that the clever move is to dry yourself out so nothing can freeze. Given six months of it, the grubs that gave in to the ice were the ones still alive at the end.

Moisture changes the route available to the larva Three moisture settings stand side by side on a drier-to-wetter axis. At the dry end, a laboratory vessel holds the larva above a mesh separator with a physically separate ice source below it, and water leaves the larva toward that ice, so cryoprotective dehydration is possible. The middle is an empty dashed frame holding only a question mark, because no published universal cutoff divides the two routes and the route there is not predicted. At the wet end, a larva lies in wet moss where the same ice reaches up to touch it and can seed freezing. drier wetter ? dry -- lab vessel cutoff unknown wet -- moss bed separate ice source route not predicted ice can touch larva dehydration possible freezing favored no published universal cutoff divides the two
The dry endpoint is a laboratory vessel; the wet endpoint is overwintering substrateThe dry end is a jar in a lab; the wet end is the moss they really winter in

Sources: Elnitsky et al. (2008), doi:10.1242/jeb.011874; Kawarasaki et al. (2014; co-author Nick Teets), doi:10.1007/s00300-014-1475-0; Yoshida et al. (2025; co-author Nick Teets), doi:10.1038/s41598-025-86617-4; Teets and Denlinger (2014; first author Nick Teets; review), doi:10.1242/jeb.089490. The review is not the primary source for the six-month experiment.

The field portrait

There is nothing heroic to see. Winter went inside the animal, and the animal did not end.There is nothing dramatic to look at. The winter went right inside the animal, and the animal did not end.

Picture it in the wet moss where it belongs: extracellular ice packed into the spaces around cells that are still whole, through a winter that can run seven to eight months, and then a thaw the larva simply carries on from.Picture it where it belongs, down in the wet moss: ice packed into every little gap around cells that are still perfectly whole, for a winter that can run seven or eight months -- and then a thaw, and the grub simply carries on.

The laboratory

The moisture gateThe wetness switch

Pick a moisture setting and see which winter route it opens. This compares routes; it does not work out survival. Temperature, how long the freeze lasts, and life stage all stay fixed at the values from the published six-month experiment. The middle setting gives no answer on purpose, because no published study says where the line falls.Choose how wet it is, and see which winter route that opens up. This compares the two routes; it does not tell you how many survive. The temperature, the length of the freeze, and the age of the grub all stay exactly as they were in the real six-month experiment. The middle setting gives no answer on purpose, because no study has ever said where the line falls.

Relationship between the larva and surrounding ice

NOT PREDICTED

NOT PREDICTED. No published universal cutoff. The fixed cohorts remain visible below.

Laboratory comparison -- -5 C -- six months -- second-year diapausing fourth-instar larvae -- n = 55 per treatment. Adult emergence scored for 50 days afterward.A lab test -- -5 C -- six months -- second-year grubs on their built-in pause -- 55 in each group. Then 50 more days to see which ones grew up.

SIX-MONTH SURVIVAL FIRST -- FOLLOWING 50-DAY ADULT-EMERGENCE WINDOW SECOND

Frozen inside iceFrozen inside ice

FROZEN -- n = 55 -- 41.8% alive at six months -- 23.6% reached adultFROZEN -- 55 GRUBS -- 41.8% STILL ALIVE AFTER SIX MONTHS -- 23.6% GREW UP

About 23 of 55 -- derived illustration of survival. About 13 of 55 -- derived illustration of adult emergence.About 23 of the 55 alive, and about 13 grown up. The marks are a drawing worked out from the percentages, not a count of real grubs.

Cryoprotectively dehydratedDried out next to ice

DEHYDRATED -- n = 55 -- 9.1% alive -- 0% reached adultDRIED OUT -- 55 GRUBS -- 9.1% STILL ALIVE -- NOT ONE GREW UP

About 5 of 55 -- derived illustration of survival. Zero adults is the published rate.About 5 of the 55 alive. Zero grown-ups is the real published number, not a rounding.

Both cohorts begin with 55 larvae. Select RUN SIX LAB MONTHS to replay the fixed comparison; the published final outcomes are already stated above and in the table.Both groups start with 55 grubs. Press RUN THE SIX MONTHS to watch it again. The final numbers are already written above, and in the table.

Complete fallback comparisonThe whole comparison, in a table
Moisture setting or treatmentHow wet it is, or what was done Route or outcomeWhat happens What the evidence supportsWhat the science actually shows
DRY -- VAPOUR-SEPARATED LABDRY -- ICE KEPT APART DEHYDRATION POSSIBLEIT CAN DRY OUT INSTEAD A physically separate ice source can draw water from a larva in a laboratory vessel.Ice sitting nearby, not touching, can pull the water out of a grub in a lab jar.
MIDDLE -- ROUTE NOT ESTABLISHEDIN BETWEEN -- NOBODY KNOWS NOT PREDICTEDNO ANSWER No published universal cutoff. No route or survival percentage is inferred.Nobody has published where the line falls, so no route and no survival number is guessed at here.
WET -- ICE-CONTACT SUBSTRATEWET -- ICE TOUCHING THE GRUB FREEZING FAVOREDIT FREEZES Ice in wet moss can seed inoculative freezing; the larva survives extracellular ice.Ice in the wet moss touches the grub and starts it freezing -- and the grub survives it.
Frozen cohort -- n = 55Frozen group -- 55 grubs 41.8% alive; 23.6% reached adult41.8% alive; 23.6% grew up Six laboratory months at -5 C; adult emergence scored for 50 days afterward.Six months in a lab at -5 C, then 50 days to see who grew up.
Dehydrated cohort -- n = 55Dried-out group -- 55 grubs 9.1% alive; 0% reached adult9.1% alive; not one grew up Six laboratory months at -5 C; adult emergence scored for 50 days afterward.Six months in a lab at -5 C, then 50 days to see who grew up.

The six-month treatments used constant laboratory conditions. The dehydrated treatment was severe, cooling protocols differed, and adult emergence reflects diapause termination as well as survival. The model does not interpolate temperature, moisture, duration, life stage, or survival.All of this happened in a lab, held at one steady temperature. The drying was harsh, the two groups were cooled in different ways, and becoming an adult needs waking up from the pause as well as staying alive. This machine will not guess at anything in between the settings it was given.

Sources close to the claims

Primary reading

The chapter notes keep each number near its source. This list gathers the primary experimental anchors and one review of the midge's frozen-desert physiology.Each chapter keeps its numbers right next to where they came from. This is the list of experiments the page is built on, plus one paper that gathers up what is known about how this midge copes with cold and dryness.

  1. 01
    Teets and Denlinger (2014), a review bringing temperature and water stress together in the frozen desert.https://doi.org/10.1242/jeb.089490
  2. 02
    Potts et al. (2020), Cormorant Island density and habitat distance.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-020-04714-9
  3. 03
    Spacht et al. (2021), measured austral-summer substrate temperatures.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-021-05035-1
  4. 04
    Kelley et al. (2014), the approximately 99 Mb genome and its 2014 record wording.https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5611
  5. 05
    Yoshida et al. (2025), L4-2 obligate diapause and the fixed six-month cohorts.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86617-4
  6. 06
    Kawarasaki et al. (2014), alternative overwintering strategies.https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.12229
  7. 07
    Kawarasaki et al. (2014), wet substrate, inoculative freezing, and the moisture constraint.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-014-1475-0
  8. 08
    Elnitsky et al. (2008), winter substrate logging and cryoprotective dehydration in a true insect.https://doi.org/10.1242/jeb.011874
  9. 09
    Lee et al. (2006), freeze tolerance in summer and winter.https://doi.org/10.1242/jeb.02001
  10. 10
    Hayward et al. (2007), prior drying, later freeze survival, and unchanged supercooling points.https://doi.org/10.1242/jeb.02714
  11. 11
    Rinehart et al. (2006), constitutive heat-shock-protein expression in larvae under tested conditions.https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0606840103
  12. 12
    Elnitsky et al. (2009), seawater and freshwater tolerance.https://doi.org/10.1242/jeb.034173
  13. 13
    Castano, Ye, and Uy (2024), the 72.1 Mb Xenos peckii assembly that superseded the 2014 record.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-03808-w